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Tropical Storm Norma was named in the Pacific on Tuesday evening and could impact Cabo San Lucas mid to late week as a Category 2 hurricane. It’s one of three systems meteorologists are tracking amid a hurricane season that has yet to fully simmer.

In addition to Norma, a second disturbance in the Pacific looks primed to become a named storm and could spin up rather quickly in the next couple of days. That one could follow in the footsteps of its predecessor, but confidence remains low.

On the Atlantic side, a clumping of thunderstorms east of the Leeward Islands is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Tammy, and could it flirt with hurricane strength as it sideswipes Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Hurricane season doesn’t technically end until Nov. 30, and experts suggest the next couple weeks in the Atlantic could be busy. The season has already come in 6 percent above average, and another six weeks remain. Record-warm water temperatures, in large part a symptom of human-caused climate change, are a major contributing factor.

Tropical Storm Norma

As of late Wednesday morning, Norma was located about 410 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, or 615 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds were listed at 65 mph, and the storm was moving northwest at 7 mph.

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From a satellite standpoint, it’s apparent that Norma will be a hurricane very soon and may already be in the process of rapidly intensifying. A major flare-up of convection, or thunderstorm activity, was apparent on infrared satellite imagery, and it was close to Norma’s center. When thunderstorms blossom, their updrafts can vertically entrain and stretch any nascent low-level swirl, helping to establish a more cohesive center of circulation.

The National Hurricane Center warns that rapid intensification is almost a guarantee, noting that “statistical indexes predicting the probability of rapid intensification … suggest a very high likelihood of rapid strengthening within 24 hours.”

Norma will probably peak at low-end Category 3 strength on Thursday evening before gradually weakening as changing winds work to knock the storm off-kilter. Norma will continue to meander north, probably approaching Cabo San Lucas into the weekend. It’s too early to know any specifics about eventual rain, wind or surge impacts.

Another Pacific disturbance

Following Norma is another disturbance about 800 miles to the east-southeast of the system. The National Hurricane Center projects a 70 percent likelihood that it will become a tropical storm.

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Instigating the fledgling storm were strong winds that blew north to south through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which exists along the Pacific coast of Mexico to the south of the Bay of Campeche. A fall cold front allowed cool, dense air to funnel through the Gulf several days ago, creating a spurt of wind. On either periphery of that little jet of winds, small eddies of vorticity, or spin, were able to roll away. One of them drifted west and developed counterclockwise rotation, and could become the seed of a later tropical storm or hurricane.

Something to watch in the Atlantic

A disorganized clustering of thunderstorms in the Atlantic is located about 850 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. While downpour activity has been pronounced, it’s unclear if the system even has a well-defined low-level center “under the hood.”

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The National Hurricane Center pegs the system with an 80 percent chance of strengthening, and it could end up issuing tropical storm watches or warnings for parts of the northern Leeward Islands or Puerto Rico later on Wednesday afternoon.

At present, the latest weather models are tending eastward, with a more offshore track that could spare the Lesser Antilles. Still at the very least, there may be strong winds, squally weather with downpours and perhaps some minor coastal splash-over.

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